NY-23 Update
Clearly the turning point in the race was Palin’s endorsement. But conservatives should hold back on the celebration for now. The race is likely to go down to the wire, with polls showing a virtual dead-heat. This in itself is amazing, considering that Dede and Hoffman have effectively switched polling spots in less than one month.
This race will be determined by turnout, plain and simple. As of right now, Dede has not endorsed Hoffman in the race, which I think is something of an omen for Hoffman, only because it appears that most Dede supporters seem to like Obama.
On the other hand, it appears that independents are taking kindly to Hoffman. According to this week’s Research 2000 poll:
While Hoffman is in a dead heat with Owens among all voters, he carries a wide 47 percent to 28 percent edge over the Democrat among self-identified independent voters. Among those same independents, Hoffman has a 53 percent favorable rating and a 14 percent unfavorable rating, far better than the 38 percent fav/23 percent unfav number he had with the electorate as a whole in the poll.
From what I can make of it, today’s events show that conservatism angst has a pulse and can make their voice heard. If Hoffman can actually pull this out, it will be a victory for conservatism and the establishment GOP and Newt Gingrinch will have significant egg on their faces.
Recent Comments